[FoRK] Black Belt Bayesian vs. Authority, Fight!

Wayne Baisley <baisley at alumni.rice.edu> on Sun Aug 12 21:41:05 PDT 2007

> > The correct answer is 7.8%.
> 
> Hmm. I get 8.4%.  How is this problem worked out?

The distribution of those who test positive or negative versus is:

         Neg     Pos
No      89.5%   9.5%
Yes      0.2%   0.8%
		
7.8% of the 10.3% who test positive will actually have cancer.  Still, it's 
nicer to test negative.

Cheers,
Wayne


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