[FoRK] Black Belt Bayesian vs. Authority, Fight!

Wayne Baisley <baisley at alumni.rice.edu> on Sun Aug 12 22:25:10 PDT 2007

> > The correct answer is 7.8%.
> >
> > Hmm. I get 8.4%.  How is this problem worked out?

[What I meant to say is ...]

The distribution of those who test positive or negative versus those who 
don't/have it is:

>         Neg     Pos
> No      89.5%   9.5%
> Yes      0.2%   0.8%
>        
> 7.8% of the 10.3% who test positive will actually have cancer.  Still, 
> it's nicer to test negative.

And, as has been noted before, doctors are generally lousy at statistics.

Cheers,
Wayne


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