[FoRK] Agreeing to agree

J. Andrew Rogers <andrew at ceruleansystems.com> on Tue Aug 21 22:32:09 PDT 2007

On Aug 21, 2007, at 7:53 PM, Jeff Bone wrote:
> and various "no bet" theorems such as the classic by Milgrom &  
> Stokey, [4] showing that rational people will not participate in  
> betting markets, since the mere fact that someone is willing to  
> take your bet is evidence that you are wrong.

The funny thing is that people willfully ignore this evidence, even  
when they have been slapped by that tuna a few times.  I have a habit  
of never taking a bet unless I have very sound reason to believe I  
will win it, something which I advertise readily and loudly when I do  
take a bet, but which no one ever listens to; when I win the first  
few times it was because I was "lucky".  After losing several  
straight bets, people usually learn that if I am willing to take a  
bet it means I know they've already lost and they no longer are  
willing to bet me.  Nonetheless, I've gotten good mileage out of this  
with girlfriends.

This of course creates a potential new hazard for them: it allows me  
to bluff with impunity because people that have previously been  
burned trying to beat me on bets won't call my wager.  The only way  
to win that game is to not play. :-)


J. Andrew Rogers

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