[FoRK] Agreeing to agree

Matt Crawford <crawdad+fork at fnal.gov> on Wed Aug 22 06:09:39 PDT 2007

>> and various "no bet" theorems such as the classic by Milgrom &  
>> Stokey, [4] showing that rational people will not participate in  
>> betting markets, since the mere fact that someone is willing to  
>> take your bet is evidence that you are wrong.
>
> The funny thing is that people willfully ignore this evidence, even  
> when they have been slapped by that tuna a few times.

For decades, I seem to have been surrounded almost constantly by  
people who will not bet with me. My wife warned the kids when they  
were small tots that if they bet with Dad, they will lose their  
allowance.

Yesterday, I got got my first taker in years; we'll see how that  
turns out. (Someone reported a grid service failing, I bet on a bad  
CRL and another uninvolved person bet on an expired proxy.)


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