[FoRK] hmm...

Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> on Tue Aug 28 08:06:54 PDT 2007

On Aug 27, 2007, at 7:24 PM, Ian Andrew Bell wrote:

>
> On 27-Aug-07, at 3:37 PM, Bill Humphries wrote:
>
>>> 1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept.  
>>> 21 to tank the markets, OR;
>>
>> Okay, this doesn't pass my idiot plot test. Why doesn't the FBI  
>> talk to this guy about the source of his inside information.
>
> Because the source of his inside information is reaching him via  
> the tin foil attached to his head.

I think this is a load of hooey.  Some of the message boards are  
saying that this looks like a (costly) glitch in somebody's trading  
system;  that's possible, but there are other explanations too.  Look  
at the open interest on some of the other strikes;  it's odd that  
there were all these contiguous big blocks ($5 increments, then $1)  
but the key missing information is which side of the book they went  
in on initially.  That would go a long way to explaining the motivation.

Also, FWIW, the whole "terrorists made an option play in airline  
stocks pre-9/11" is thoroughly debunked.

I'll go out on a limb here and make a prediction:  there's not going  
to be any substantial "crash" of the US economy between now and  
9/21.  I may even throw a few personal dollars behind that  
proposition, seems like a good time to be dabbling in options.   
(Caveat:  this is purely a personal opinion, does not reflect  
employer blah blah blah or constitute professional advice blah  
blah...  I suppose it's worth reminding everybody that my meatware's  
notoriously bad at these sorts of judgments, the best option play I  
ever tangled with was the one I let my then-broker talk me out of on  
about January 3rd 2000...)  ;-)


jb





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