<jbone at place.org> on
Tue Aug 28 08:06:54 PDT 2007
On Aug 27, 2007, at 7:24 PM, Ian Andrew Bell wrote:
> On 27-Aug-07, at 3:37 PM, Bill Humphries wrote:
>>> 1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept.
>>> 21 to tank the markets, OR;
>> Okay, this doesn't pass my idiot plot test. Why doesn't the FBI
>> talk to this guy about the source of his inside information.
> Because the source of his inside information is reaching him via
> the tin foil attached to his head.
I think this is a load of hooey. Some of the message boards are
saying that this looks like a (costly) glitch in somebody's trading
system; that's possible, but there are other explanations too. Look
at the open interest on some of the other strikes; it's odd that
there were all these contiguous big blocks ($5 increments, then $1)
but the key missing information is which side of the book they went
in on initially. That would go a long way to explaining the motivation.
Also, FWIW, the whole "terrorists made an option play in airline
stocks pre-9/11" is thoroughly debunked.
I'll go out on a limb here and make a prediction: there's not going
to be any substantial "crash" of the US economy between now and
9/21. I may even throw a few personal dollars behind that
proposition, seems like a good time to be dabbling in options.
(Caveat: this is purely a personal opinion, does not reflect
employer blah blah blah or constitute professional advice blah
blah... I suppose it's worth reminding everybody that my meatware's
notoriously bad at these sorts of judgments, the best option play I
ever tangled with was the one I let my then-broker talk me out of on
about January 3rd 2000...) ;-)
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