[FoRK] New hypotheses

Ian Andrew Bell <hello at ianbell.com> on Mon Oct 22 13:50:22 PDT 2007

Has anyone seen Star Wars Episode VII:  Rise of the Pedants?

Thot not.

-Ian.


On 22-Oct-07, at 11:25 AM, Stephen D. Williams wrote:

> Correlation does not prove causation, but it might indicate it.
> However, both counter examples are bad because they are true of  
> most of the population, in addition to the target segment.  That's  
> no correlation at all.
>
> Narrow traits shared by narrow target segment and not the rest of  
> the population are more of a correlation than not.  Correlation  
> just gives you a starting point for exploration of a scientific  
> study.  Dismissing a correlation as invalid is premature, unless  
> you have counter evidence.
>
> So, all you have to do, Jeff, is:
> If the hypothesis is that owning an F-150 causes jackass driving:
> Find random people with no history of jackass driving and give them  
> a random assortment of F-150s and non-F-150s, and then measure how  
> many become jackass drivers.
>
> Or, oppositely, if the hypothesis is that jackass drivers are drawn  
> to F-150s:
> You need to find all jackass drivers before they buy their first  
> car and find out how many of them choose to buy F-150s.
>
> Or come up with a different hypothesis:
> On a recent trip, a rental car type that I had never driven before  
> greatly amplified my jackass-drivered-ness.  Either that or I had  
> sleep problems or something, because I had a whole string of near  
> accidents in the span of a few hours that I couldn't explain and  
> were totally out of character.  I felt fine, but didn't perform  
> that way.  I'm usually a fairly precision driver and spot things  
> well before there's an issue.  I have a pilot's license for Pete's  
> sake.  But in that car, on that day, I couldn't pull out of a  
> parking spot without an issue.
>
> Perhaps the F-150 has such poor ergonomics that it effectively  
> lowers driver skill.
>
> sdw
>
> Jeff Bone wrote:
>>
>> 100% of all serial killers drank milk as children...
>>
>> ;-)
>>
>> jb
>>
>> PS - I'm sticking to my story.  There's something about assholes  
>> and Ford F-150s...
>>
>>
>> On Oct 22, 2007, at 11:44 AM, Reese wrote:
>>
>>> Jeff Bone wrote:
>>>> Ford F-150 pickup trucks represent an estimated 1-4% of the cars  
>>>> on the road in Austin, TX.
>>>> 100% of 5 incidents of egregious jackass driving I observed this  
>>>> weekend involved Ford F-150s.
>>>> .:  A disproportionate number of Ford F-150 buyers are asshole  
>>>> drivers.
>>>
>>>
>>> Error. Allow me to illustrate:
>>>
>>> Pants-wearers represent an estimated +95% of the people in Austin  
>>> TX,
>>> TX, USA, whatever.
>>>
>>> 100% of incidents involving rude smokers involve perpetrators who've
>>> worn pants at some point in their lives.
>>>
>>> .: A disproportionate number of pants-wearers are smokers who  
>>> like to
>>> blow smoke in your face.
>>>
>>
>
> -- 
> swilliams at hpti.com http://www.hpti.com Per: sdw at lig.net http://sdw.st
> Stephen D. Williams 703-371-9362C 703-995-0407Fax 20147 AIM: sdw
>
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