[FoRK] Gauging the trifecta scenario

[Jeff Bone]

I've long said that absent other considerations I prefer to see a Dem  
in the White House, a GOP House, and a Dem Senate.  That generally  
translates into a kind of moderation, forcing some aisle-crossing non- 
partisanship among pragmatists that you don't see otherwise.  The  
trifecta of egregiously-lying asshole GOP evil that we enjoyed in  
2000-2006 is something I don't care to see repeated;  but a Dem  
trifecta promises just as much evil, IMHO, particularly if the White  
House is again held by an ideologue with little interest in pragmatism.

Just looking at the election landscape in isolation it seems unlikely  
that control of the House or Senate will flip...  unless...  the  
epically-low approval ratings in the Congress turn into massive anti- 
incumbent sentiment, like they did back in the 90s when e.g. you had a  
candidate for Congress officially changing his name to "Not An  
Incumbent."  And that's certainly a possibility.  It's a race to see  
whether the anti-Bush / anti-GOP sentiment that carried the Dems into  
control of Congress in '06 maintains despite low approval or whether  
it is overwhelmed by throw-the-bums-out sentiment.

Losing either the House or Senate to the GOP would probably be a good  
thing, regardless of who gets the White House.  If the Dems get the  
White House, then losing some of Congress would be an excellent damage  
brake.  OTOH, losing both would probably be a disaster --- it would  
almost certainly translate into another 4-8 year witch hunt like we  
saw with Clinton I.

Grrr....

jb