[FoRK] How far will the dollar fall? (was: Demonizing the hedge funds...)

[Jeff Bone]

On Apr 19, 2008, at 1:39 PM, Luis Villa wrote:
> On Sat, Apr 19, 2008 at 2:08 PM, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:
>>
>
>> BTW, one reason you don't hear "professional economists" talk much  
>> about
>> e.g. the impact of political leadership on the economy is that none  
>> of their
>> models comprehend behavioral factors like that particularly well if  
>> at all.
>> And even if they did, measuring quantities like that would be  
>> fiendishly
>> difficult.  So the fact that they aren't "blaming Bush" is only  
>> because in
>> doing so they'd have to toss out or fight for years to amend their  
>> precious
>> models.  Says more about the practice of economics than it does  
>> about any
>> impact Bush may or may not have had.
>
> This is definitely true; in most cases (Bush I, Clinton I) it is hard
> to give blame or credit in large part because the impact is so small
> and can't be modeled well.

I agree (obviously, as you're agreeing with me) that the impact can't  
be modeled well (using standard models) but that's precisely why we  
--- Krugman, you, me, Kevin, etc. --- can't say with any authority  
that the impact is large, small, or whatever.

jb