[FoRK] Economics, models, predictions

[venki iyer]

"apparently"?

On Sat, Apr 19, 2008 at 1:45 PM, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:

>
> A simple observation...
>
> Without describing what I do in detail, let me just say that it's a lot
> more complicated and apparently a whole lot less effective than certain
> other apparently less technical and far more qualitative "models."  Most of
> the hedge fund 50 that made $billions last year were probably operating from
> a kind of intuition coupled with varying degrees of fundamental analysis,
> yielding qualitative predictions as simple as "the dollar's got to keep
> falling" or "those mortgage-backed securities --- and the stocks of those
> that hold them --- are overpriced."  :-/
>
> Continuing a long personal tradition of making everything a lot harder
> than it needs to be,
>
> ;-)
>
> jb
>
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