[FoRK] Capitalism, Contracts and Cronyism

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Wed Aug 27 09:41:12 PDT 2008


On Aug 27, 2008, at 11:23 AM, Stephen Williams wrote:

> Jeff Bone wrote:
>> On Aug 27, 2008, at 1:01 AM, Stephen Williams wrote:
>>
>>>> What kind of data sets do you test these theories on?
>>
>> The real world?  (It's difficult to test predictions any other  
>> way. ;-)
>
>>
> And how many Great Depressions have you successfully predicted so far?

"These theories" in general have not been predictions about Great  
Depressions.  I find it odd that you think that the *only* qualifying  
previous prediction for future predictions of Great Depressions would  
be previously successful predictions of Great Depressions.  Or,  
abstractly, "I'll only believe your prediction of X if you've  
previously successfully predicted X."

Rather ridiculous, especially with regards to high-risk events;   
that's would be like completely ignoring NASA's prediction of a low- 
probability but high-damage asteroid collision because they have not  
successfully predicted any previous asteroid collisions.

jb




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