[FoRK] Capitalism, Contracts and Cronyism
jbone at place.org
Wed Aug 27 09:41:12 PDT 2008
On Aug 27, 2008, at 11:23 AM, Stephen Williams wrote:
> Jeff Bone wrote:
>> On Aug 27, 2008, at 1:01 AM, Stephen Williams wrote:
>>>> What kind of data sets do you test these theories on?
>> The real world? (It's difficult to test predictions any other
>> way. ;-)
> And how many Great Depressions have you successfully predicted so far?
"These theories" in general have not been predictions about Great
Depressions. I find it odd that you think that the *only* qualifying
previous prediction for future predictions of Great Depressions would
be previously successful predictions of Great Depressions. Or,
abstractly, "I'll only believe your prediction of X if you've
previously successfully predicted X."
Rather ridiculous, especially with regards to high-risk events;
that's would be like completely ignoring NASA's prediction of a low-
probability but high-damage asteroid collision because they have not
successfully predicted any previous asteroid collisions.
More information about the FoRK