[FoRK] Fwd: Hey, big spender...

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Thu Aug 28 18:46:56 PDT 2008


On Wed, Aug 27, 2008 at 10:28 AM, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:
> That's the thing about Black Swan events.  They may not be very likely ---
> indeed, you'll note that the high water mark for my prediction of a GD given
> Obama influence is "only" 1/3 --- but the impact is severe enough that you
> have to weight accordingly.

The impact is also unlikely enough that you have to weight
accordingly.  Your 1/3 estimate is less likely than your 29% estimate,
which is itself less likely than your 20% estimate.

I think there's a lot of meaty detail to look at here, and a mailing
list isn't a context that will produce informative results.  Something
like a wiki spreadsheet would make more sense, and it would need
fairly broad participation to become meaningful.

To the extent that I have reactions to the specifics, what I'd say is
that there are so many fudge factors and so little good data that the
project of doing a macro-economic analysis is very hard, and the deep
suspicion of Democratic policy makers which you brought to the table
led you to find a path not just to the worst but to the catastrophic.
For example, automatically doubling cost estimates is a very debatable
technique.


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