[FoRK] Fwd: Hey, big spender...
jbone at place.org
Thu Aug 28 20:28:42 PDT 2008
On Aug 28, 2008, at 8:46 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
> For example, automatically doubling cost estimates is a very debatable
This slipped by on first read, needs a response...
Note that this is a heuristic that usually works in practice, *absent
any deeper analysis*; however you'll also note that in my estimate of
e.g. the cost of insuring the uninsured that I actually *threw out*
several conservative assumptions and then reduced the baseline
estimate to 1/5th of its original outright value. Hardly doubling.
So while I may advocate that as a rule of thumb for guessing, I hardly
advocate it as a part of any sort of analytical method. Go back and
look at the "detailed" (cough) breakdown of that estimate. Go on.
Be careful that those you accuse are actually guilty of the crimes you
More information about the FoRK