[FoRK] Fwd: Hey, big spender...

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Thu Aug 28 20:28:42 PDT 2008


On Aug 28, 2008, at 8:46 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:

> For example, automatically doubling cost estimates is a very debatable
> technique.

This slipped by on first read, needs a response...

Note that this is a heuristic that usually works in practice, *absent  
any deeper analysis*;  however you'll also note that in my estimate of  
e.g. the cost of insuring the uninsured that I actually *threw out*  
several conservative assumptions and then reduced the baseline  
estimate to 1/5th of its original outright value.  Hardly doubling.   
So while I may advocate that as a rule of thumb for guessing, I hardly  
advocate it as a part of any sort of analytical method.  Go back and  
look at the "detailed" (cough) breakdown of that estimate.  Go on.

Be careful that those you accuse are actually guilty of the crimes you  
allege. ;-)

jb



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