[FoRK] And the punch line, g'nite folks, be playing here all week... ; -)

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Thu Aug 28 20:39:31 PDT 2008


On Aug 28, 2008, at 10:28 PM, Jeff Bone wrote:

> On Aug 28, 2008, at 8:46 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>
>> For example, automatically doubling cost estimates is a very  
>> debatable
>> technique.
>
> Note that this is a heuristic that usually works in practice,  
> *absent any deeper analysis*;  however you'll also note that in my  
> estimate of e.g. the cost of insuring the uninsured that I actually  
> *threw out* several conservative assumptions and then reduced the  
> baseline estimate to 1/5th of its original outright value.  Hardly  
> doubling.  So while I may advocate that as a rule of thumb for  
> guessing, I hardly advocate it as a part of any sort of analytical  
> method.  Go back and look at the "detailed" (cough) breakdown of  
> that estimate.  Go on.

The punch line is this:  when you do the back-of-the-envelope, then  
divide the answer by 5 (by throwing out a whole bunch of entirely  
obvious and reasonable assumptions, like "sick people cost more and  
currently uninsured people are more likely to be sick") --- what do  
you get?

About twice Obama's stated figure.

G'nite folks, thanks for coming!  Will be off this holiday weekend but  
playing two shows a day at least next week... ;-)

jb




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