[FoRK] Interesting analysis of entrepreneurship and risk
sdw at lig.net
Thu Aug 28 22:53:36 PDT 2008
Jeff Bone wrote:
> In case you missed this, an interesting study: "THE BURDEN OF THE
> NONDIVERSIFIABLE RISK OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP."
> In case you needed any additional evidence to suggest that, at least
> apropos "startups", raising the long-term cap gains rate is a bad
> idea. Russell will insist that Obama wants some kind of exclusion for
> this type of activity, but I'll agree with James that this is both
> smokescreen and entirely impractical from a legislative or
> administrative perspective. In any case, doing so w/o carve-out
> actually increases the entrepreneurial burden, the so-called
> "certainty equivalent-value of the entrepreneurial opportunity."
> How much would you *pay* for the opportunity to become a founder in a
> promising startup? Turns out that for a risk-neutral individual, it's
> about $4.4M. For a person with a normal level of risk-aversion, it's
> barely positive. As a serial entrepreneur, clearly, I'm not
> particularly risk averse. That should factor into how you folks think
> about my statements about likely risks.
> Myself, don't care much anymore from a personal impact perspective.
> Out of that racket. On strike for almost 4 years now. I'm John
> Cusack in Say Anything: “I don't wanna sell anything, buy anything,
> or process anything as a career. I don't wanna sell anything bought or
> processed, or buy anything sold or processed, or process anything
> sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or
> processed, you know, as a career, I don't wanna do that...” Well,
> anymore. Too many idiots trying to screw up your deal. Generally
> even when you win, you lose. The economics don't justify the
> frustration, at least for me anymore after several iterations; the
> world's full of idiots anyway, you don't have to invite them over for
> tea and crumpets. Far easier ways to make money.
Yea. I'm either going to join a startup well along with a great idea,
or another career job. I did my own startup, ripped off by the
management and money guys. Helped others, mostly a waste of time. I
should have just done high-dollar consulting the whole time. It was a
And my startup ideas, I'm going to bootstrap them. In particular, I'm
creating a utility to sell directly to people to make direct use of a
group of useful ideas, and then create a web site version as component
ware and maybe a service. If it takes off, I've got a year to try for
patents, etc. if that makes sense.
Anyway, I'm in the middle of a reset and a graceful exit from being
trapped in a gov. contractor for 7 years... And, here in the valley,
I'm in a target rich environment. My problem is narrowing my options.
I'm most interested in AI, robotics, visualization, communication, and
scalable systems in general. I have books to write, however I probably
won't allocate enough time for that for a while, learning too much for
the next 9 months.
But what ways to make money do you recommend? Day trading and...
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