[FoRK] A choice of nightmares

Luis Villa luis at tieguy.org
Tue Sep 2 06:32:37 PDT 2008


On Tue, Sep 2, 2008 at 9:18 AM, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:
>
> On Aug 31, 2008, at 2:02 PM, Luis Villa wrote:
>
>>> +1. They are working aggressively towards it at the state level, and
>>> doing so despite repeated 5-4 losses at SCOTUS. When those 5-4 losses
>>> start becoming 5-4 wins, you can guarantee they'll start working even
>>> harder.
>>
>> (And it goes almost without saying that they will become 5-4 wins
>> early in a McCain administration, as Stephens will have to retire at
>> some point and McCain promised to appoint an anti-Roe judge long
>> before Palin was in the picture.)
>
> Do you really think that a totally-buff Dem Senate, backed with the
> negotiating clout of a filibuster proof majority there and a majority in the
> House, doesn't have the muscle to block any completely horrid appointments?

No, I don't think they do. fivethirtyeight guesses we'll have 55.4
Senate democrats; pollster.com thinks 56; electoral-vote.com thinks
56. And all of those counts include Joe Lieberman. So best guess is
that this Senate will have the same number of Democrats as the Senate
that approved Scalia (55) and two fewer than the Senate that approved
Thomas. So all McCain has to do is find someone like Roberts who has
said nothing explicit about abortion but is a good Catholic and
believes in 'strict construction'[1] and voila... we can kiss Roe
goodbye.

(The House has exactly zero role in approving appointments. But you knew that.)

Luis

[1] purely political bullshit that has no legal meaning but that is a
rant for another day


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