[FoRK] Authoritative explanation of gas spike in 2007/8?

Jim Whitehead ejw at cs.ucsc.edu
Tue Oct 13 02:43:24 PDT 2009


Ah, thanks. This gave me some new search terms, which allowed me to find 
the following article:

Understanding Oil Price Behavior through an Analysis of a Crisis
Leonardo Maugeri
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 2009 3(2):147-166; 
doi:10.1093/reep/rep007
http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/3/2/147

Abstract:

This article seeks to identify and explain both the fundamental and the 
more controversial elements that shape the dynamics of the oil market, 
using the recent oil crisis as the basic framework for analysis. The 
article suggests that the price of oil is essentially a function of the 
current and future spare capacity of oil. However, spare capacity alone 
cannot fully explain the extent and timing of oil price movements. Other 
important factors must be taken into account, including, above all, the 
expectations of market operators, who tend to be influenced by both the 
perceived current and future level of spare capacity and the unreliable 
data that have plagued the oil world since its inception. The article 
also suggests that bottlenecks in the oil refining system may play an 
important role in oil price movements, but tends to downgrade the 
importance of other factors, such as the influence of OPEC and financial 
speculation. Finally, the article suggests some reforms to make the oil 
market more transparent and possibly more stable, which is a 
prerequisite for making investments in energy efficiency and renewables 
in the near future.

- Jim

Reese wrote:
> Reese wrote:
>
>> If anyone insists, I'll dig up links to a domestic news article that
>> outlines the Wall Street involvement and an Asia Times (IIRC) article
>
>
> Here they are, I stumbled across them almost accidentally:
>
> http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE24Dj02.html
>
> http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/60minutes/main4707770.shtml
>
> Note the date and venue of each article (I've heard elsewhere that
> the Asia Times is something akin to the eastern equivalent of the WSJ
> or the FT), then note the nearly word-for-word similarities in large
> passages of text from each article.
>
> Once for the players who were not on the inside track, once again a
> few months later for the mooks who were trying to be players but not
> doing all of their homework. Compare the timing of each article with
> the dates that the oil (gasoline) crisis played out on. I smell a rat.
>
> Reese
>
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