[FoRK] Kling vs. Hanson, Kurzweil, and GAI (sort of)

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Sun Nov 1 15:43:12 PST 2009


Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo wrote:
> [Yeah, I know all about the horrors of top-posting but I leave Jeff's note attached for reference, not because I'm responding to any specific statement in it.]
>
> Thanks for posting that, Jeff. It's interesting ... when I read Kling's Friday article yesterday I was planning to use exactly those essays to support my contention that we are likely even farther from virtualizing anything remotely resembling human intelligence than my own most pessimistic guess to this point.
>
> If we want to send out a "wavefront of human intelligence" it has to be human intelligence. The very best I can see in any forseeable future (a century or two, not decades) would be the agents that Kling talked about. That's barely machine intelligence. It's not even close to human intelligence.
>   

I'm very optimistic, but not certain.  Expecting linear or even log 
progress is not realistic in this area.  Success will likely be 
discontinuous, surprising, and both fast and slow in unexpected ways.  
If everyone is convinced it can't happen, then it won't.  As long as 
enough smart people are optimistic and curious, it will make progress.  
We're pretty much out of the AI dark ages now.  With some success 
already behind us, hopefully it won't die back again.  Clearly, you 
don't want to start selling investors on AGIs.  For business, you just 
sell the nifty algorithms you happen upon.  That doesn't mean you 
shouldn't keep trying to contribute to the AGI dream.

And besides, it's fun!

This was a cool link from the first link below:
http://www.ted.com/talks/henry_markram_supercomputing_the_brain_s_secrets.html

Stephen
> After reading Kling I think I'll keep my focus on ways to get this generation ship under control, either proactively or by teaching my progeny how to survive what comes next so they can be part of the next attempt.
>
>         ...ken...
>
> --- On Sun, 11/1/09, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:
>
>   
>> From: Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org>
>> Subject: [FoRK] Kling vs. Hanson, Kurzweil, and GAI (sort of)
>> To: "Friends of Rohit Khare" <fork at xent.com>
>> Received: Sunday, November 1, 2009, 12:28 PM
>>
>> Interesting stuff, some meat, thought-provoking.
>>
>> Kling v. Hanson and arguments-from-authority from this past
>> Friday:
>>
>>   http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/10/robin_hanson_ar.html
>>
>> Kling's "Where I'd Bet Against Kurzweil" from 2005 (with
>> relevant and insightful analysis)
>>
>>   http://techcentralstation.com/article.aspx?id=081705C
>>
>> Kling's "On Intelligence, People, and Computers" from 2004
>>
>>   http://www.techcentralstation.com/article.aspx?id=112204B
>>
>>
>> $0.02,
>>
>> jb
>>
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>
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