[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo ken_ganshirt at yahoo.ca
Mon Feb 1 12:32:42 PST 2010

--- On Mon, 2/1/10, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar <drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:

> Hi all,
> So with all the smoke and hot air blowing, I wanted to get
> some sort of objective metric of what people think will
> happen with the iPad.  I'm not savvy enough to setup a
> prediction market, so I figured we could just place some
> bets.
> For example, I'm willing to bet a $50 gift card to Kiva.org
> that the iPad will do to existing tablet and netbook
> computers what the iPhone and iPod did to their respective
> categories.  I'm open to discussions about how to
> quantify that (10 million in 18 months? 50 million in 24
> months?).
> Any takers (on either side)?
> -- Ernie P.
> P.S.  Yes, I work there, but I have zero insider
> knowledge.  I only know what I read in the papers, just
> like you.

Ernie, would you remind us what you think the iPhone and iPod did to their respective categories: exactly and specifically, using things like current market share numbers, total market before/now, etc?  It's hard to make a bet, either way, when it's not clear what the bet is.

If you can do that, it should also help answer your question about "quantifying".


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