[FoRK] Betting on the iPad
wgstoddard at gmail.com
Mon Feb 1 12:40:37 PST 2010
On 2/1/10 3:32 PM, Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo wrote:
> --- On Mon, 2/1/10, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar<drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
>> Hi all,
>> So with all the smoke and hot air blowing, I wanted to get
>> some sort of objective metric of what people think will
>> happen with the iPad. I'm not savvy enough to setup a
>> prediction market, so I figured we could just place some
>> For example, I'm willing to bet a $50 gift card to Kiva.org
>> that the iPad will do to existing tablet and netbook
>> computers what the iPhone and iPod did to their respective
>> categories. I'm open to discussions about how to
>> quantify that (10 million in 18 months? 50 million in 24
>> Any takers (on either side)?
>> -- Ernie P.
>> P.S. Yes, I work there, but I have zero insider
>> knowledge. I only know what I read in the papers, just
>> like you.
> Ernie, would you remind us what you think the iPhone and iPod did to their respective categories: exactly and specifically, using things like current market share numbers, total market before/now, etc? It's hard to make a bet, either way, when it's not clear what the bet is.
> If you can do that, it should also help answer your question about "quantifying".
The only thing that could prevent Apple from making a whole pile of
money from the iPad (directly or indirectly) will be the economy.
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