[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Mon Feb 1 13:14:25 PST 2010

I'll lay this bet for the iPad: I bet that it will revolutionize ebooks.

It will ensure that passive formats like epub and azw lose out in
favor of active formats like HTML5 apps and proprietary phone-specific

It will enable the technology to finally get great.  Ebook readers are
a lame technology.  EG, in-book ajax is a distant dream.  Media
playback not even that.

I imagine that the reader app and book content will be bundled
together in one opaque package.  There will be a few different reader
apps, each of which has its own API for the books to write to.  The
best APIs will be microformatted HTML.

Dark horse bet for the winning data format: MAF.

On Mon, Feb 1, 2010 at 12:40 PM, Bill Stoddard <wgstoddard at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 2/1/10 3:32 PM, Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo wrote:
>> --- On Mon, 2/1/10, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar<drernie at radicalcentrism.org>
>>  wrote:
>>> Hi all,
>>> So with all the smoke and hot air blowing, I wanted to get
>>> some sort of objective metric of what people think will
>>> happen with the iPad.  I'm not savvy enough to setup a
>>> prediction market, so I figured we could just place some
>>> bets.
>>> For example, I'm willing to bet a $50 gift card to Kiva.org
>>> that the iPad will do to existing tablet and netbook
>>> computers what the iPhone and iPod did to their respective
>>> categories.  I'm open to discussions about how to
>>> quantify that (10 million in 18 months? 50 million in 24
>>> months?).
>>> Any takers (on either side)?
>>> -- Ernie P.
>>> P.S.  Yes, I work there, but I have zero insider
>>> knowledge.  I only know what I read in the papers, just
>>> like you.
>> Ernie, would you remind us what you think the iPhone and iPod did to their
>> respective categories: exactly and specifically, using things like current
>> market share numbers, total market before/now, etc?  It's hard to make a
>> bet, either way, when it's not clear what the bet is.
>> If you can do that, it should also help answer your question about
>> "quantifying".
>>          ...ken...
> The only thing that could prevent Apple from making a whole pile of money
> from the iPad (directly or indirectly) will be the economy.
> Bill
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