[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Dr. Ernie Prabhakar drernie at radicalcentrism.org
Mon Feb 1 14:52:03 PST 2010

Hi Ken,

On Feb 1, 2010, at 12:32 PM, Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo wrote:

> --- On Mon, 2/1/10, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar <drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
>> For example, I'm willing to bet a $50 gift card to Kiva.org
>> that the iPad will do to existing tablet and netbook
>> computers what the iPhone and iPod did to their respective
>> categories.  I'm open to discussions about how to
>> quantify that (10 million in 18 months? 50 million in 24
>> months?).
> Ernie, would you remind us what you think the iPhone and iPod did to their respective categories: exactly and specifically, using things like current market share numbers, total market before/now, etc?  It's hard to make a bet, either way, when it's not clear what the bet is.
> If you can do that, it should also help answer your question about "quantifying".

Hey, if I wanted to do real work, I wouldn't be spouting off on a mailing list. :-)

I'll settle for a single data point:


> The 6.9 million iPhones sold during Apple's fourth fiscal quarter added up to more iPhones than sales during the entire lifetime of the original iPhone (6.1million).

That's 13 million iPhones in 15 months.  Assuming a launch at the end of March 2010, that would imply 13 million iPads by the end of June 2011.  There's even a decent chance we'd get an actual number by then, since it is the usual date for WWDC.

So, anyone willing to bet *against* Apple selling 13 million iPads by June 2011?

If you don't like that metric, feel free to suggest your own....

-- Ernie P.

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