[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Dr. Ernie Prabhakar drernie at radicalcentrism.org
Tue Feb 2 13:39:35 PST 2010


Hi Gordon,

On Feb 1, 2010, at 3:23 PM, Gordon Mohr wrote:
> Dr. Ernie Prabhakar wrote:
>> So, anyone willing to bet *against* Apple selling 13 million iPads by June 2011?
> 
> I will. $50?

Deal.

> We can expect Apple's quarterly report for the quarter ending June 2011 to give enough info, right?

Um, not necessarily.   I don't think they break out unit shipments very often. We'd have to wait for some milestone press release, and perhaps interpolate.  In case of vagueness, we can refer it to the list (ultimately, Rohit) for adjudication.

> And I actually think the iPad will be a big hit. Just not that big, in the first 15 months. Not as many people need iPads as iPhones.

They just don't know it. :-)  Plus, don't forget that the iPhone didn't have an App Store and was limited to very few countries / carriers during that timeframe.

On Feb 1, 2010, at 3:32 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
I think the macro scale impact of iPad is in changing the traditional
> desktop metaphor for the PC.  I'm not convinced that iPad itself will
> sell a huge number of copies, but I do think it's likely that
> iPad-like user experiences will become common on machines with as much
> power as a PC.

"I'm not convinced" -- are you just waffling, or will you join Gordon and put $50 behind your opinion?

-- Ernie P.








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