[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Gordon Mohr gojomo at boxbe.com
Tue Feb 2 17:43:00 PST 2010


Dr. Ernie Prabhakar wrote:
> Hi Gordon,
> 
> On Feb 1, 2010, at 3:23 PM, Gordon Mohr wrote:
>> Dr. Ernie Prabhakar wrote:
>>> So, anyone willing to bet *against* Apple selling 13 million iPads by June 2011?
>> I will. $50?
> 
> Deal.

It's on!

>> We can expect Apple's quarterly report for the quarter ending June 2011 to give enough info, right?
> 
> Um, not necessarily.   I don't think they break out unit shipments very often. We'd have to wait for some milestone press release, and perhaps interpolate.  In case of vagueness, we can refer it to the list (ultimately, Rohit) for adjudication.
> 
>> And I actually think the iPad will be a big hit. Just not that big, in the first 15 months. Not as many people need iPads as iPhones.
> 
> They just don't know it. :-)  Plus, don't forget that the iPhone didn't have an App Store and was limited to very few countries / carriers during that timeframe.

The most bullish analyst (BroadPoint AmTech) has a prediction that, if 
you squint and front-load their year-two numbers, just barely touches 
your estimate. See:

http://www.benzinga.com/104011/apple%E2%80%99s-ipad-tears-up-the-rulebook
zoom: http://iphonasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Picture-19.png

...or...

http://appleinsider.com/articles/10/01/28/wall_street_expects_apples_risky_ipad_to_sell_1m_5m_in_first_year.html

Note that these are from people who are generally bullish on the device 
and AAPL. So if they're all wrong, I lose.

> On Feb 1, 2010, at 3:32 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
> I think the macro scale impact of iPad is in changing the traditional
>> desktop metaphor for the PC.  I'm not convinced that iPad itself will
>> sell a huge number of copies, but I do think it's likely that
>> iPad-like user experiences will become common on machines with as much
>> power as a PC.
> 
> "I'm not convinced" -- are you just waffling, or will you join Gordon and put $50 behind your opinion?

Be an Ernie P.[1] or a Russell T. [2], not an Adam B. [3,4] -- put your 
money where your mouth is!

- Gordon

[1] this exchange

[2] http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/Week-of-Mon-20050110/033188.html
     I won the bet as I offered -- USD did finish 2005 up against EUR --
     though Russell was right on the CAD and the long-term trend!

[3] http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2001-December/007548.html
[4] http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2001-December/007550.html
     Despite my offer to let Adam pick addresses and timeframe, I don't
     think that even with 8 years' hindsight, and occasional nibbles at
     metered service testing in some regions, he could today find 5
     addresses that had unmetered 1Mbps broadband in 2001 and then got
     more-expensive and/or metered broadband anytime since. So, his
     unwillingness to bet revealed the foolhardiness of his prediction
     that metering was the inevitable future of home internet access!


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