[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Fri Feb 5 20:58:43 PST 2010


On Tue, Feb 2, 2010 at 5:43 PM, Gordon Mohr <gojomo at boxbe.com> wrote:
> Dr. Ernie Prabhakar wrote:
>> On Feb 1, 2010, at 3:32 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>> I think the macro scale impact of iPad is in changing the traditional
>>>
>>> desktop metaphor for the PC.  I'm not convinced that iPad itself will
>>> sell a huge number of copies, but I do think it's likely that
>>> iPad-like user experiences will become common on machines with as much
>>> power as a PC.
>>
>> "I'm not convinced" -- are you just waffling, or will you join Gordon and
>> put $50 behind your opinion?
>
> Be an Ernie P.[1] or a Russell T. [2], not an Adam B. [3,4] -- put your
> money where your mouth is!

Aw, now you've got fighting words.

My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.

Thoughts on T and X?  For a starting guess I'll say 2015 and 10
million.  Anybody interested in such a bet?



More information about the FoRK mailing list