[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Sun Feb 7 09:59:52 PST 2010


Aaron, are you stepping up to speak for conventional wisdom among
techies?  Sure there's wisdom in conventional wisdom?

Form factor is a subtle and important part of comp sci.  A netbook
without a keyboard is not a lesser desktop, it is a new type of thing
with new strengths.

It's a profound development in the computer industry that the
morphology of this object has so much in common with smart phones,
maybe more than it does with desktops, and yet is competitive with
desktops for many purposes.  The desktop, including both monitor and
keyboard, has defined our conception of computers.

Laptops without keyboards are a significant step.  The next step is to
lose monitors.  I wonder what that will be like?  What if the device
was voice controlled and had a speaker output?  (But also a full scale
web browser and connectivity).

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 9:08 PM, Aaron Burt <aaron at bavariati.org> wrote:
> On Fri, Feb 05, 2010 at 08:58:43PM -0800, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>> My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
>> units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
>
> Wot, are we due for a flood of walled-garden netbooks-without-keyboards?
> And I suspect the Newton already played Lisa to the iPad/iPhone.
>
>> A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
>> successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
>> lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.
>
> What matters is, does the iPad add fun to CoD:Zombies or whatever Appleoids
> play instead of Trials HD?  Sure the screen's bigger, but is the experience
> better for that?
>
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