[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Dr. Ernie Prabhakar drernie at radicalcentrism.org
Mon Feb 8 10:47:14 PST 2010

Hi Lucas,

On Feb 5, 2010, at 8:58 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:

> My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
> units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
> A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
> successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
> lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.
> Thoughts on T and X?  For a starting guess I'll say 2015 and 10
> million.  Anybody interested in such a bet?

The iPhone will sell less than 10 million units by 2015?  And iPad alternatives together by 2015 will sell more than 10 million?

You are so totally on. :-)

Thing is, I'm already in to Gordon for $50 that the iPad will sell 13M in 15 months (June 2011):


To simplify accounting, can we align the dates?  

And since that's roughly 1/4 sooner (and a larger number), would you be willing to give me four-to-one odds?

That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?

-- Ernie P.

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