[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Tue Feb 9 11:47:00 PST 2010


Ernie, I think you accepted a bet that was much stiffer than you had
to.  But a logical actor shouldn't give you better odds if you'll
accept worse ones.

On Mon, Feb 8, 2010 at 10:47 AM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
<drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
> Hi Lucas,
>
> On Feb 5, 2010, at 8:58 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>
>> My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
>> units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
>> A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
>> successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
>> lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.
>>
>> Thoughts on T and X?  For a starting guess I'll say 2015 and 10
>> million.  Anybody interested in such a bet?
>
>
> The iPhone will sell less than 10 million units by 2015?  And iPad alternatives together by 2015 will sell more than 10 million?
>
> You are so totally on. :-)
>
> Thing is, I'm already in to Gordon for $50 that the iPad will sell 13M in 15 months (June 2011):
>
> http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=283747111147
>
> To simplify accounting, can we align the dates?
>
> And since that's roughly 1/4 sooner (and a larger number), would you be willing to give me four-to-one odds?
>
> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?
>
> -- Ernie P.
>
>
>
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