[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Dr. Ernie Prabhakar drernie at radicalcentrism.org
Tue Feb 9 20:07:05 PST 2010


Hi Lucas,

On Feb 9, 2010, at 11:47 AM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
> Ernie, I think you accepted a bet that was much stiffer than you had
> to.  But a logical actor shouldn't give you better odds if you'll
> accept worse ones.

Who says I'll accept worse ones? :-)  Gordon got the low-price offer, but my utility curve is non-linear, so if I'm going to expend another $50 I'm gonna want better odds. By sharing *your* predictions, you've given me a sense of your probability distribution, so logically *I* have no reason to make it easy on you!

>> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?

So are you confident enough to put your money where your mouth is, or not?

-- Ernie P.

> 
> On Mon, Feb 8, 2010 at 10:47 AM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
> <drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
>> Hi Lucas,
>> 
>> On Feb 5, 2010, at 8:58 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>> 
>>> My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
>>> units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
>>> A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
>>> successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
>>> lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.
>>> 
>>> Thoughts on T and X?  For a starting guess I'll say 2015 and 10
>>> million.  Anybody interested in such a bet?
>> 
>> 
>> The iPhone will sell less than 10 million units by 2015?  And iPad alternatives together by 2015 will sell more than 10 million?
>> 
>> You are so totally on. :-)
>> 
>> Thing is, I'm already in to Gordon for $50 that the iPad will sell 13M in 15 months (June 2011):
>> 
>> http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=283747111147
>> 
>> To simplify accounting, can we align the dates?
>> 
>> And since that's roughly 1/4 sooner (and a larger number), would you be willing to give me four-to-one odds?
>> 
>> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?
>> 
>> -- Ernie P.
>> 
>> 
>> 
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