[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Lucas Gonze lucas.gonze at gmail.com
Wed Feb 10 12:41:13 PST 2010


Sounds to me like you're regretting your Gordon bet and wouldn't do it
again, meaning that I have convinced you that you were wrong.  So
let's put that to the test.

I'll bet $50 on the same terms as Gordon.  Will you take the bet?

On Tue, Feb 9, 2010 at 8:07 PM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
<drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
> Hi Lucas,
>
> On Feb 9, 2010, at 11:47 AM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>> Ernie, I think you accepted a bet that was much stiffer than you had
>> to.  But a logical actor shouldn't give you better odds if you'll
>> accept worse ones.
>
> Who says I'll accept worse ones? :-)  Gordon got the low-price offer, but my utility curve is non-linear, so if I'm going to expend another $50 I'm gonna want better odds. By sharing *your* predictions, you've given me a sense of your probability distribution, so logically *I* have no reason to make it easy on you!
>
>>> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?
>
> So are you confident enough to put your money where your mouth is, or not?
>
> -- Ernie P.
>
>>
>> On Mon, Feb 8, 2010 at 10:47 AM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
>> <drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
>>> Hi Lucas,
>>>
>>> On Feb 5, 2010, at 8:58 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>>>
>>>> My gut is that the iPad is like the Lisa.  It won't move a lot of
>>>> units by itself but products that are strongly influenced by it will.
>>>> A way to put this in a bet is that at time T the iPad and direct
>>>> successors will sell less than X units but products that incorporate
>>>> lots of ideas from it will sell more than X.
>>>>
>>>> Thoughts on T and X?  For a starting guess I'll say 2015 and 10
>>>> million.  Anybody interested in such a bet?
>>>
>>>
>>> The iPhone will sell less than 10 million units by 2015?  And iPad alternatives together by 2015 will sell more than 10 million?
>>>
>>> You are so totally on. :-)
>>>
>>> Thing is, I'm already in to Gordon for $50 that the iPad will sell 13M in 15 months (June 2011):
>>>
>>> http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=283747111147
>>>
>>> To simplify accounting, can we align the dates?
>>>
>>> And since that's roughly 1/4 sooner (and a larger number), would you be willing to give me four-to-one odds?
>>>
>>> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?
>>>
>>> -- Ernie P.
>>>
>>>
>>>
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