[FoRK] Betting on the iPad

Dr. Ernie Prabhakar drernie at radicalcentrism.org
Wed Feb 10 13:45:08 PST 2010

Hi Lucas,

On Feb 10, 2010, at 12:41 PM, Lucas Gonze wrote:

> Sounds to me like you're regretting your Gordon bet and wouldn't do it
> again, meaning that I have convinced you that you were wrong.  So
> let's put that to the test.

No, it means that I saw a chance to make $200 instead of $50. :-)

> I'll bet $50 on the same terms as Gordon.  Will you take the bet?

In the spirit of:

>> Anyhow, I don't want to do verbal fencing anymore

I'll spare us both the bickering and rationalizations and accept the bet as is.  See you in 2011. :-)

-- Ernie P.

> On Tue, Feb 9, 2010 at 8:07 PM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar
> <drernie at radicalcentrism.org> wrote:
>> Hi Lucas,
>> On Feb 9, 2010, at 11:47 AM, Lucas Gonze wrote:
>>> Ernie, I think you accepted a bet that was much stiffer than you had
>>> to.  But a logical actor shouldn't give you better odds if you'll
>>> accept worse ones.
>> Who says I'll accept worse ones? :-)  Gordon got the low-price offer, but my utility curve is non-linear, so if I'm going to expend another $50 I'm gonna want better odds. By sharing *your* predictions, you've given me a sense of your probability distribution, so logically *I* have no reason to make it easy on you!
>>>> That is, are you willing to bet $200 against my $50 that the iPad (and direct successors) will NOT sell 13 million units by June 2011?
>> So are you confident enough to put your money where your mouth is, or not?
>> -- Ernie P.

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