[FoRK] Human behavior is 93% predictable

Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo ken_ganshirt at yahoo.ca
Tue Mar 2 18:31:33 PST 2010


--- On Tue, 3/2/10, Jebadiah Moore <jebdm at jebdm.net> wrote:

> 
> That said, perhaps the actual number for the 10% can be reduced to
> acceptably low rates.  93% accuracy (which is obviously a longshot) is
> dodgeable.  If you could build a 99.999% reliable model, that's still a lot
> of errors given scale, but perhaps it would be prohibitively difficult to
> actually engineer an error and they would all be random.
> 


In practical terms it's likely to also be hugely difficult to get from 93% to 99.999%. Once you start trying to get 9s, especially to the right of the decimal point, it becomes much more difficult than the arithmetic suggests. Just ask any phone company or any business that has genuinely embraced six sigma.


>
>   But the average foil-crowner would probably be up a creek.
> 


Oh shit. So your saying, basically, I'm screwed??  <8-)

         ...ken...


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