[FoRK] Human behavior is 93% predictable

J. Andrew Rogers andrew at ceruleansystems.com
Tue Mar 2 23:32:14 PST 2010


On Mar 2, 2010, at 4:17 PM, Stephen D. Williams wrote:
>> To be clear, I am not saying you can't be unpredictable, just that it is much, much harder than most people intuit.
>>  
> 
> Yea?  I'm going to invent 10 things in the next year.  You think that anyone can predict even 1?  


If it could be predicted, did you really invent it?  You *say* you are going to invent 10 things next year, your actual behavior will very likely result in something else.  Are you fully cognizant of what compels or dissuades you to invent?


> Can you predict anything in the book that I may write?



What makes you think you are going to write a book?  The whole point of this is that empirically what people think and say they will do and what they actually do are frequently unrelated and easily manipulated. 

We aren't talking about an ability micromanage people, and for most purposes that would not be necessary. The article is also talking about something mostly unrelated to the broader state-of-the-art. Even if we ignore that current capability is further ahead than most people assume, it is hard to ignore the fact that it is progressing rapidly.


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