[FoRK] Human behavior is 93% predictable

Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo ken_ganshirt at yahoo.ca
Wed Mar 3 21:06:37 PST 2010


--- On Wed, 3/3/10, J. Andrew Rogers <andrew at ceruleansystems.com> wrote:

> 
> The incorrect intuition most people have about prediction
> assumes a very simple, stupid, static probability model of
> the type that everyone is already well-acquainted with,
> hence the intuition. Newer methods have a complex
> distribution of algorithm probabilities over very high-order
> models.  The distributed prediction error bounds that
> make up the "last 10%" do not have the implications usually
> assumed.
> 
> This is why you need a computer to defeat it. 
> Computers will see all manner of exploitable pattern that
> humans do not and those abstract patterns are very difficult
> for humans to reason about in the context of the overall
> model.  Attempting to increase your entropy and
> predictive error bounds without a computer's help is a
> fool's errand. Human brains are inadequate for the task.
> 
> 
> It is increasingly subtle and transparent precisely because
> it can systematically operate on patterns at a level of
> abstraction that human cognitive ability is too limited to
> discern.  Interesting and spooky at the same time.
> 
 
You make it sound like it will, then, be the computers that will be exploiting humans rather than other humans. ???

At least, it seems to follow that if the machines are able to "systematically operate on patterns at a level of abstraction that human cognitive ability is too limited to discern" humans wishing to exploit behaviour patterns won't have any more luck figuring out how to exploit those subtle patterns than the target humans who might wish to mess them up. E.g. neither party has the necessary cognitive ability. ???

      ...ken...


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