[FoRK] 10 Trends for the '10s

Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo ken_ganshirt at yahoo.ca
Sat Mar 20 23:23:03 PDT 2010

--- On Sat, 3/20/10, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:

> --
> (1)  tagging / chronological filing / search edges out
> hierarchical filing as the primary consumer information
> management metaphor
> (2)  pipe and content disaggregate;  the bundled
> "pipe + content" model mostly a thing of the past by end of
> decade
> (3)  > 3 orders-of-magnitude increase in number of
> internet- connected and addressable devices by end of
> decade
> (4)  augmented reality goes mainstream (i.e.
> consumer;  HUD glasses as mainstream consumer
> artifact)
> (5)  private currencies become increasingly acceptable
> for most transactions 
> (6)  deep consumer penetration of narrow-AI (but
> surprisingly general) virtual personal assistants
> (7)  structured wiring / 10 GigE backbones and
> automation systems in most mid-range and higher new
> residential starts
> (8)  consumer-priced "thought recognition"
> functionality at the level of e.g. voice recognition today
> by end of decade
> (9) at least one new, sovereign, artificial nation goes
> live (i.e. charter city, seastead, etc.)
> (10)  Google the most-valuable (in terms of market
> cap) company on the planet on Dec. 31, 2019.  The top
> 10 companies in this ranking will include at least one
> company that does not exist today.

Let me add:

(11) The IT project failure rate will not improve. Organizations will be no better at managing technology projects for the purpose of business process change than they are now (and were in the 70s). The technology project management community will be debating exactly the same issues as they were in the ['00s ... '70s].

And a comment:

Our collective inability to rapidly assimilate really new stuff will inhibit any of Jeff's predictions that depend on widespread assimilation of really new stuff. At best, we (the youngest among us who have grown up with the present technology) will, collectively, finally be figuring out how to take reasonably full advantage of the stuff that is on the front portion of the mainstream today, but not the (b)leading edge stuff. And definitely not anything that we don't know about yet. 

So, as an industry participant (computer and telecom) and observer of over three decades:

(2) is a commercial issue, not technology related at all. Break the backs of the telcos and the cablecos and you might get a start at it. Good luck with that.

(3) 1. Perhaps approaching 2. > 3 orders of magnitude, not.

(4) Early adopters and perhaps a little trickle-down. Mainstream, not.

(7) My bet is that in the consumer space we'll more likely be ignoring wire and depending on wireless instead. Structured wiring is already here. My daughter just built a very modest lower middle-class home this winter and all they had to do was ask. They didn't even have to spec it. The builder knew exactly what they wanted and it cost them about 100 bucks extra for a 1300 sq ft 3 bedroom two-story.

(10) Google will be 2019's IBM/Microsoft/HP. Largest (globally) market cap will be a conglomerate, either resource or biomedical/pharma, not IT.


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