[FoRK] 10 Trends for the '10s

J. Andrew Rogers andrew at ceruleansystems.com
Sun Mar 21 01:00:31 PDT 2010

Adding my meager $0.02 on a couple of these predictions...

On Mar 20, 2010, at 6:48 PM, Jeff Bone wrote:
> (4)  augmented reality goes mainstream (i.e. consumer;  HUD glasses as mainstream consumer artifact)

Trite and mostly useless augmented reality will go mainstream. There is a diverse stack of hard problems that have to be solved before this can turn into what most people think it will. Way too much slow-motion "if" coming off this to have any expectation of a mature AR platform this decade.  There are still a bunch of theoretical problems that academia has to slog through before this turns into a real platform.  It will be more like the mid-1990s web.

> (5)  private currencies become increasingly acceptable for most transactions 

I agree with this prediction. The interesting aspect is that the political infrastructure is completely unprepared for this and watching them react to the slow realization should be good for some lulz.

> (9) at least one new, sovereign, artificial nation goes live (i.e. charter city, seastead, etc.)

It would be cool, but I doubt it. I would put a higher probability on the fragmentation of existing sovereign entities.

> (10)  Google the most-valuable (in terms of market cap) company on the planet on Dec. 31, 2019.  The top 10 companies in this ranking will include at least one company that does not exist today.

I expect Amazon will have a higher market cap than Google in a decade. Google is trying to become a consumer company to middling effect and against stiff competition, but in the mean time their core technology is getting stale. 

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