[FoRK] Apple issues / predictions

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Fri Apr 9 11:43:25 PDT 2010


I'll give Tom a little more future-foot-in-mouth quotable fodder.  I'm not afraid to go on record about some of this;  called the last batch of specific e.g. econ predictions mostly spot-on, let's see how I do on this front.


(1)  Didn't take a crystal ball to know that they were going to be announcing an architecturally-appropriate multitasking solution yesterday.  Already got that one, check!  Similar comments apply to many of the other much-hyped problems and so forth;  just following from the similar trajectory taken e.g. by the Mac, it stands to reason that many such criticisms will eventually be addressed.  And btw, everybody loved the Newton --- yet it had many similar limitations. Did everybody bitch because you could only use NewtonScript on it and nobody had access to its source code?  No.  What a bunch of whiners and pussies "we've" become.   And by "we" I mean you whiners and pussies.   You know who you are.  ;-)


(2)  Anti-trust trouble on the horizon -wrt- the non-competition w/ bundled apps requirement and their monopoly control of the distribution channel to the device.  Expect either preemptive relaxation of non-competition or, worst case, a legal solution;  possibly with relaxed general access to the channel.  (iAd, interestingly, may force the latter issue.)  Say, by early 2012.


(3)  There will be enough of a backlash about the language license lockdown that you'll see some relaxation of that by early 2012 at the latest, possibly coupled with officially-blessed on-device end-user scripting tools / support.  Pure policy will be supplanted by e.g. technical solutions, i.e. watchdog-driven jailing of apps that actually behave poorly in practice, coupled with stricter policy support ("if your app generates a certain number of fail reports back to us, we're taking you out of the store...")  (And btw, per earlier comment, David (IIRC) is of course right:  openness is not Apple's motivation for taking an anti-Flash, pro-HTML5 stand, but that will be its effect and it will be a positive thing from a dev and consumer perspective.  Hardware-accelerated canvas becomes the norm everywhere with competition for whose canvas is buffest, yum.)


(4)  The iPad will end its first year of life with the largest-ever first-year sales for a major new consumer technology device / product line.


(5)  Tom, and certain other individuals, will continue to be completely unable to hold any kind of rational, objective or even coherent conversation about anything even tangentially involving Apple, Inc.  ;-)  Meanwhile certain other people will continue to pound nails with those damned hammers...  for the metaphor impaired, what I mean is that all the inevitable rabid froth isn't going to prevent many folks, even some on this list, from using Apple products to get real stuff done.


(6)  Dave Winer will be hospitalized due to uncontrollable fits of gut-busting laughter when he discovers that the dude he went ballistic over (*screaming* "you're interfering!") because of statements to the effect of "Apple should just hurry up and die" back in, oh, '97 or so is now being criticized by hoards of deranged anti-Apple lunatics for being too unquestioningly pro-Apple (or something.)


If you care (and I'm not sure why you would ;-) --- bookmark this one, check back in April 2011, then again the following year around the same time.


best,


jb




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