[FoRK] Malthusian machinations

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Sat Jun 12 10:04:12 PDT 2010


On Fri, Jun 11, 2010 at 04:55:28PM -0500, Jeff Bone wrote:

> Again, you are failing (like Eugen) to account for the scaling  
> effects. This ain't your daddy's seawater-U extraction.

In order to extract a very dilute source, you have to process
a lot of volume. Seawater has 0.1 kWh/ton energy density as
far as present fission is concerned. You need to process 2*10^13
tons/year for just today's needs.
 
> As for the physical plant costs, Eugen makes a fair point.  But we are  
> making progress on that front, too.  Probably a decade to order- 

We do. Today's plants are more expensive than ever.

The question is moot: nuclear energy had 60 years of time to
develop under optimal conditions, under serious subsidies.

It did not manage to create 4th gen reactors, breeders, intrinsically
safe designs, nor solve the waste energy. And if you ever looked
behind the pretty PR (Areva, ahem) then BP looks lilly-white in
comparison.

We no longer have 60 years. In fact, we need to effectively complete
the transition to >90% of renewable by 2050 latest. The budget is
zero-sum, so we no longer have time to fuck around on multiple
venues. We blew our chances on that.

> magnitude cost efficiency increases, absent social and related  
> economic friction.

You, Sir, are smoking crack. 

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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