[FoRK] Malthusian machinations

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Tue Jun 15 05:04:07 PDT 2010


On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 12:36:08PM -0500, Jeff Bone wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On Jun 12, 2010, at 12:04, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> >We do. Today's plants are more expensive than ever.
> 
> Bzzt, wrong. Building *yesterday's* plant designs today is more  
> expensive, but only barely when inflation adjusted. The aforementioned  

Olkiluoto. And if you knew how many corners Areva has been cutting
domestically (which is why they're in such hot water) you'd realize
how badly they look. And don't get me started on Russians; I know
my former countrymen very well. 

> thorium reactors are orders of magnitude less.  Larger scale plants  

Thorium reactors don't exist. As commercial products. 4th gen reactors
don't exist. As commercial products. Any non-breeder will result in 
peak fissible by 2040 if you build those 1000+ reactors required to
bridge the gap, so it's not even a stop-gap.

> with newer designs are also less.

The problem is that the industry tells you a very fine story which
unfortunately disintegrates when you look at it. They lie, almost as
well as the oil men.
 
> Tired of jousting with you on this.  Most of your points are more or  
> less right, but the conclusion appears to border on dogmatic, and I  
> don't have time for that today.  Maybe sone other time.

I realize that this is against the geek consensus that nuclear a) is cool
b) works. I also do not have the time and energy to fight over this,
just stating in my opinion is that nuclear is not the answer. This
includes thorium and fusion, including maverick like polywell (I don't
deem LENR-CANR worth mentioning).

Again, I think we have excellent migration pathway by conservation,
micro co-gen and renewable both at microgrid and supergrid level.
At ~terabucks annually until 2050 it would probably work.
 
> With respect,
> 
> jb
> 
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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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