[FoRK] Malthusian machinations

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Jun 15 14:07:02 PDT 2010


On Jun 15, 2010, at 8:32 AM, Jeff Bone wrote:

> Re the former, I think you are off by an order of magnitude or two: 10-100 terabucks annually is what I'd put it at. 

Correction:  I'd misread Eugen and misspoke in kind, nobody's fault but mine.  He actually said ~1 terabuck annually for, say, 40 years.  I'd put the entire project to transition completely to solar at something like 10-100 terabucks *total* to completion in today-dollars, not annually.  Our estimates are actually much closer than I initially thought or implied, sloppy me.

I don't think it helps much, because a today-terabuck represents about 2% of today-gross world product.  I don't see any way to get those funds allocated and that level of funding sustained for decades in any case.  The mechanisms by which that would be accomplished simply do not exist.  Certainly not before hitting a gap modulo other substantial innovation and investments;  somewhere between Eugen and Dave on that.  I think it (the gap) could *possibly* be avoidable, but don't see that as a sure thing my any stretch.

jb




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