[FoRK] Malthusian machinations

Ken Ganshirt @ Yahoo ken_ganshirt at yahoo.ca
Tue Jun 15 20:18:43 PDT 2010


--- On Tue, 6/15/10, Jeff Bone <jbone at place.org> wrote:

> ..... (Insert handwave here.) When oil hits say 200 / barrel and supply chains start to crumble, maybe less so.
> 

Eugen is looking for the trigger. That's the trigger. But it's not just the price. The price has to be based on genuine supply shortage *and* it has to last. It can't be a blip like in the 70's and more recently. 

So, if the price gets nice and high, say, 40%-50% higher than the last blip (IIRC ~$140bbl) *and* stays there for a year *and* all signs are such that economists on all sides of the arguments about whether it's "permanent" will agree that it probably is, alternatives will begin to be taken really seriously by the politicians. 

The bad news is that the reactions -- they will be kneejerk reactions rather than thoughtful actions -- will be helter skelter. As usual, the politicians will listen to those they choose to listen to. Those will probably not be people cognizant of what the reality will be at the time.

Am I wrong?

         ...ken...




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