[FoRK] Malthusian machinations

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Wed Jun 16 05:39:34 PDT 2010


On Tue, Jun 15, 2010 at 04:07:02PM -0500, Jeff Bone wrote:

> I don't think it helps much, because a today-terabuck represents 
> about 2% of today-gross world product.  I don't see any way to get 

Yeah, infrastructure is expensive, especially if you missed the
deadline. To put that into perspective, the wars alone were in 3 TBuck.

If you look at 
	http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2007.png
you see immediately where all the money you need to spend is
going instead. 

> those funds allocated and that level of funding sustained for decades 

The longer we wait, the less money we will have, and the less
time we will have.

Already we pissed away 35-40 years, and whole mountains
of cash. And talent we no longer have, and drive we no
longer have.

> in any case.  The mechanisms by which that would be accomplished 
> simply do not exist.  Certainly not before hitting a gap modulo 
> other substantial innovation and investments;  somewhere between 
> Eugen and Dave on that.  I think it (the gap) could *possibly* be 
> avoidable, but don't see that as a sure thing my any stretch.

I don't think the gap is avoidable. In principle energy savings
would put residential at about 1/3rd of US today, given Japan
as an example. Don't know about industry, but I'd suspect 1/2.

This buys some time, but of course you cannot waste that time.

-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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