[FoRK] Extreme Life Extension: Investing in Cryonics for the Long, Long Term

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Jun 22 04:27:29 PDT 2010





On Jun 21, 2010, at 23:05, Jebadiah Moore <jebdm at jebdm.net> wrote:

> But you could always make the insurance go to something else at the  
> last
> minute, right?

Sure.  Under what situation (changed assumptions, etc.) would this be  
rational at the last minute?

> Nothing wrong with that, but are you telling me there aren't people  
> who
> invest/donate beyond signing up?  That would be a serious warning  
> sign.

Not enough data.  Perhaps Eugen knows.  But agreed, a concern.

>> I agree that
> mid-middle class US could do it--they can own their own homes as  
> well, but
> they'd also say those are expensive.

The mid-middle class typically pays a lot more for a mortgage than we  
are taking about here.  Term life is cheap.  We talking a few bucks a  
day, particularly if the process is undertaken prior to or at the  
onset of middle age and with a healthy subject.

Side point: somebody mentioned that this is likely a middle aged man's  
game. In my case, I've been exploring this seriously since my mid-20s,  
and obtained the funding vehicles for it in my early 30s.  But that's  
me, I'm weird. ;-)

> ...a bad idea to invest, I'm just saying
> it's not as obviously a good idea or bad idea as people make it out  
> to be.

I'm not attempting to judge the idea in some general sense, really;  
merely asserting that, given a set of particular and self-reinforcing  
assumptions, the rationale does in fact hang together. Absent those  
assumptions, it's up in the air.  But given a few assumptions, the  
rest tend to crystallize around it and the logic becomes harder to  
avoid.

Caplan did a bit recently on this; turns out there's a fairly common  
profile among those pursuing this today.

> Sure, they appreciate it, but I bet that if you did a happiness survey
> before and after some new piece of tech emerges, there wouldn't be  
> much
> difference.

Sure. The "frog in slowly heating pot of water" effect is pervasive;   
but comparing non-adjacent points along the curve is where things get  
interesting.  And we are talking about the ultimate discontinuity,  
here...

> Not everything will always be anticipated.

Here we are, though, anticipating the very problems in question.  
Adjustment shock is standard schtick in a lot of speculative fiction  
dealing with this.

Ever read "The Unincorporated Man?"

The central conflict in the book revolves around adjustment shock.

(Other than that, though, it is not particularly imaginative. Paints a  
fairly uninspired picture of the future into which the main character  
is awakened.  I would expect revival to imply significantly greater  
change unless the period in question was just a few decades or less,  
and that's conservative IMHO.)

Another perhaps better treatment, one that assumes only a brief  
interruption:  The First Inmortal.

> There would be pressure to
> revive as soon as the tech became feasible.

Not so sure.  Contractual arrangements provide trigger conditions. If  
you are setting this up for yourself, do you want to go first?

I actually worry that the opposite may be a problem: nobody wants to  
go first, particularly if the process is one-shot, destructive of the  
initial template, and the technology is likely to improve significantly.

BTW, there's a tight coupling between this process and upload.  Most  
serious discussions of upload take slice scanning as the most  
practical path. Surly don't want to have that procedure performed  
unless one is already quiescent. ;-)

Wet phase nano gets around this, maybe.  But that's unlikely to be the  
initial route in any case.  I'd lay odds that the first uploads, if  
they happen at all, are corpscicle scans.

jb


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