[FoRK] Bar Stool Economics

Jeff Bone jbone at place.org
Tue Sep 28 11:43:20 PDT 2010

On Sep 28, 2010, at 11:56 , Bill Stoddard wrote:

> does the world really need a 'world reserve currency' and if the answer is yes, what other currencies would work? Yea, I know the set answer is the Yuan... but really?



> Asking for some advice ... as general or as specific as you (or anyone on FoRK) sees fit to answer...

Really can't say anything useful, have to settle for meta-useful.  There are as many opinions out there in answer to these questions as their are assholes.  Personally, I have come to distrust almost all of these answers, the more "common wisdom" they are the more suspect.  Significant economic and social dislocation is probable to near unity, as is the destruction of some significant amount of global value;  it really doesn't make sense to expect anything else when the world is trying to transition from an overly-prolonged set of 19th-century assumptions to 21st-century structural, technological, and demographic realities.  (And that's only extrapolating from clear linear trends;  it does not assume any true technological discontinuity, existential risk, etc.)

I don't know that there is any single, truly safe haven, strategy, prescription, hedge, what have you.  OTOH, I do anticipate that during this dislocation some significant amount of real wealth is likely to change hands.  This means that the best defense is a good offense;  to survive in the upcoming tsunami you must learn how to *prosper* during it;  you have to acquire the skill of surfing rogue waves.  Whatever that means.  A certain cultivated detachment from the semantics of any particular situation is probably in order.


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