[FoRK] Why Fukushima made me stop worrying and love nuclear power

Gregory Alan Bolcer greg at bolcer.org
Fri Mar 25 14:38:56 PDT 2011

Ah, well.  Fault trees are supposed to exhaustively go through all 
possible combinations of failures, but then it's only a model.  A lot 
can go wrong in between the dots.


On 3/25/2011 2:33 PM, Stephen Williams wrote:
> A "1-in-1000 year fault" is a probability estimate. They may not have
> been wrong, just unlucky. We'll have the first complete sample in the
> set of Z trials in another 1000-n years... Clearly, they should have
> designed for a multiple of the expected worse case instead of a few
> percent above. I think I heard that they built a 30-ft wall to contain
> waves expected up to 20-25 ft. They should have been at 60 or 90 feet,
> or had failsafes that could survive that level.
greg at bolcer.org, http://bolcer.org, c: +1.714.928.5476

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