[FoRK] Is anything soon to replace coax....

Aaron Burt aaron at bavariati.org
Mon Sep 12 10:26:12 PDT 2011


On Sun, Sep 11, 2011 at 07:06:11PM -0500, Russell Turpin wrote:
> Here's a basic question: Will anything soon replace coax cable as the
> basic physical medium that carries internet/TV signal into the home?

Replace?  No.  But I expect cellular and satellite to continue competing
with wireline folks for a stagnating pool of fixed internet/TV customers.

That should do a nice job of draining all the profit out of having a bunch
of corroding copper in the ground or on (rented) poles.

I'd put money on someone who can place satellite-fed provider-neutral video
CDN nodes under 4G-enabled cell towers.  Grass Valley could play there...

Casual internet users will start to drop household internet service as
they migrate from desktops to 4G-enabled tablets (and laptops).
(Remember POTS?  We have it only for the FAX machine.  Remember FAX?)

Casual TV viewers will start switching to tablets and laptops.  Younger
folks have been raised from infancy with constant video stimulation, mostly
from portable video players with crappy little screens, and their choice 
of Disney videos.  Online VOD services like Hulu, Netflix and TV Everywhere
should fit them nicely.  "Channels" are sooo last-decade.

The cable companies are trying to tie their own online video services to
existing cable subscriptions, but I suspect they'll get enough folks
saying, "why am I paying for coax when I don't have a TV?" that they'll try
to work some sort of 4G triple-play deal with the big cellphone companies.

OTOH, I'm probably wrong:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/cable/report-domestic-pay-tv-market-shows-resilience-25016


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