[FoRK] Fwd: Microsoft Posts First Quarterly Loss Ever [lost decades]

Gregory Alan Bolcer greg at bolcer.org
Thu Jul 19 19:09:41 PDT 2012


Okay, I agree with everything you are saying, but

How long until you think x86 goes away?

Greg

On 7/19/2012 6:44 PM, Stephen Williams wrote:
> MicroWho?
>
> On my 12 hyperthreaded core (i.e. 24 effective core), 64GB Mac, I
> reconfigured the number of processors and memory in my Windows 7 VM,
> because it is a pig.  Then, because the "hardware" changed too much, I
> spent 10-15 minutes on the phone with an automated system, typing 48
> digits into the phone, then 48 digits into the dialog box, then waiting
> a while, verifying "that your copy of Windows is genuine" before I could
> continue.  I did an OS update and recompile in the Linux VM while I
> waited once I was done confirming my using-MS-products-again stupidity.
> Shame on me. Then it took 3 update/reboot cycles until it was ready to
> use.  By that time, I'd lost interest and began porting the code to OS X.
>
> Everything is quickly approaching a solid technical baseline that leaves
> Microsoft in the cold in most ways:
> Linux on the server, HTML5 or Java/C++/OC++ on IOS/Android on mobile
> (with IOS questionable for the long run), HTML5 (HTML/CSS/Javascript
> plus C++ extensions) or Qt or Java on the desktop, any desktop.  Nothing
> else matters because it will dwindle in currency, competitiveness, and
> interest ever more rapidly.
>
> There's plenty of settle left on the server side, on Linux. Anything new
> that emerges for desktop development will necessarily be
> cross-platform.  Anything new that emerges for the server will
> necessarily assume Linux, VMs, etc.
>
> Office is facing different kinds of existential threats than Windows,
> but it is nevertheless highly exposed and evolving far too slowly to
> survive the coming phase change.
>
> The only question is how quickly Windows and Office will fade or be
> upstaged.  I think I know one interesting path, but we'll see.
>
> Microsoft could easily pivot and recover, but they've shown every sign
> of being too thick-headed and thick-bellied to do anything serious about
> it.  And we're probably better off for it.  I could solve their
> problems, but they wouldn't listen even if they heard me, any more than
> McNealy listened by my suggestions a decade ago.
>
> All that said, this is just a blip from a write-down apparently. MS has
> plenty of cash, still has a lot of suckers hooked, and has plenty of
> maneuvering room.  They could surprise, but past performance leads to
> the conclusion that it wouldn't be a nice surprise.
>
> sdw


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