[FoRK] [ZS] Re: Reminder: ZSF launch event tomorrow! Please help spread the?word?if you can!

Rüdiger Koch rudiger.koch at gmail.com
Fri Nov 16 09:00:15 PST 2012


2012/11/16 Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org>

> ----- Forwarded message from Gary Stock <gstock at nexcerpt.com> -----
>
> From: Gary Stock <gstock at nexcerpt.com>
> Date: Fri, 16 Nov 2012 11:13:23 -0500
> To: Friends of Rohit Khare <fork at xent.com>
> Subject: Re: [FoRK] Reminder: ZSF launch event tomorrow! Please help spread
>         the word if you can!
> User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.4; en-US;
>         rv:1.9.2.28) Gecko/20120306 Thunderbird/3.1.20
> Reply-To: gstock at nexcerpt.com, Friends of Rohit Khare <fork at xent.com>
>
>
> Does ZS have a "loyal opposition"?  The presentation is appealing, but
> avoids revealing any weaknesses.
>

The presentation is supposed to give an overview, the main idea, not a
comprehensive discussion of all imaginable scenarios.

The main failure mode is simple and discussed in various documents: The
target states simply all don't do it, maybe because they don't understand
it (1st rule in business: don't close a deal you don't understand), maybe
because there are other interests. In this case, some, maybe all of the
initial investment will be gone.


>
> Brief examples of triggers of doubt:
>
> Discussing BCI, without ever defining the acronym, suggests a mild but
> natural flavor of "inbreeding toward irrelevance."  It leaves me wondering
> if the group is too self-referential.
>

It was simply assumed that BCI is an acronym that doesn't require
definition in H+ circles. After all, this is not something obscure. A
Google search for "BCI" returns:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain%E2%80%93computer_interface
as the first result.


>
> Pitching Bitcoin as so highly profitable has all the hallmarks of an
> investment scam.  It leaves me wondering if the group is unaware of how
> that appears to outsiders.
>

That is indeed a problem. Usually if things sound too good to be true, they
are. Bitcoin is a disruptive technology. It may be for money what the WWW
is for publishing. If it can realize it's potential, a price of several
$100,000 is not impossible.

Of course it never may. There is a reason the price is at $11 ATM. The US
may wage a "war against Bitcoin" or quantum computers crack the crypto for
good. Who knows?


>
> Can someone recommend a usable -- i.e., rational, moderate, concise --
> statement of ways in which ZS or bitcoin may ~not~ work as intended?
>

Given above.

Another possibility is that there will be no bubble, but the prices adjust
to rational levels ($30-$100). In this case we still have a really good
profit. Given the history of Bitcoin, this seems unlikely.

Another possibility is that right before our rally takes off, some really
bad news chokes it (War on Bitcoin, Internet regulation and surveillance)


> Of what has not been said, but might ~need~ to be considered?
>

It may be that H+ land in a micro nation fails because of religious
opposition. In that case we're left with the profits, but are unable to
apply H+ tech where it is legal. Which would leave us with the option to
change the laws at home (forget it - for my country, anyway) or Seasteading.

-Anu

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