[FoRK] Concrete results

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Sun Jun 16 14:39:38 PDT 2013


On 6/16/13 9:34 AM, mdw at martinwills.com wrote:
>> On Sat, Jun 15, 2013 at 03:08:33PM -0700, Joseph S. Barrera III wrote:
>>> We could do so much better than simply bolting on a (literally)
>>> ancient recipe.
>> Yes, see geopolymers.
>>
>>> Why aren't the concrete manufacturers trying to innovate based on
>>> modern experiments instead of looking back at the ancients?
>> Because energy is still too cheap. Fracking methane will be
>> largely over by 2020, so expect renewed interest in low-energy
>> geopolymers then.
>>
>>> I guess not every industry yet is information-driven. Oil is, of
>>> course, but evidently concrete is not.
>> Oil is not really information-driven, the peak 2006 has hit them
>> cold. Peak total fossil and total nuclear fissible is 2020, almost
>> nobody is aware of that yet.
> The oil statement is incorrect.  Since hitting a bottom in mid-2005, total
> annual energy production in the U.S. has grown 10%... from 62.6 trillion
> cubic feet equivalent (tcfe) to more than 69 tcfe. Oil production in the
> lower 48 states is up 60% and dry gas production is up 35% over the past 8
> years. These increases are on a scale that hasn't been seen in more than
> 50 years.
>
> The U.S. Geological Survey estimated in 1994 that the recoverable amount
> of oil and gas in the North Dakota's Bakken Shale formation TOTALED 151
> million barrels. TODAY, 15 years later, producers in the Bakken are
> extracting 255 million barrels EACH YEAR -- about 100 million more barrels
> annually than were supposed to be in the entire basin.
>
> Today the Bakken has at least 24,000,000,000 barrels of recoverable oil
> discovered so far.

What's that?  Innovation saves the day, again?  Why, I'm surprised!

>
> Peak Oil's main flaw was that it assumed recovery methods would forever be
> limited to extracting 10% of the oil contained in a conventional
> reservoir. But as technology improves, most knowledgeable industry experts
> predict that ultimate recovery rates will exceed 40%. So even if there are
> never any additional oil reserves discovered, we might still only be
> halfway toward Peak Oil. (This is also assuming WE NEVER GO BACK and
> recover the previously unavailable oil in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and
> California reservoirs).
>
> Finally, the U.S. has a massive glut of natural gas. This excess supply is
> the result of the over investment in exploration and production from the
> previous decade. Even though drilling for natural gas has all but stopped
> in the U.S., supply hasn't fallen. In February 2012 the U.S. produced 2.37
> tcf (trillion cubic feet) of gas. One year later, February 2013, the U.S.
> produced 2.32 tcf. Today U.S. gas prices are less than $4.00 per mcf.  The
> rest of the industrialized world is paying around $10.00 per mcf.
>
>
>> Net energy cliff only started in earnest about 2012. Chances are,
> The net energy cliff in the US is currently a myth and the revised cliff
> has been pushed back to 2040, ASSUMING we never go back to the previously
> known oil reservoirs and recover the remaining 30% we can now recover
> using todays technology.
>
>> 2020 could be the sentinel event to the Fun of 2050.
>> _______________________________________________

sdw



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