[FoRK] Concrete results

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Mon Jun 17 02:29:09 PDT 2013


On Mon, Jun 17, 2013 at 07:15:19PM +1000, Noon Silk wrote:
> > [...]
> >
> > This is 2013. Total fossil and nuclear peak is 2020.
> > If you look at R&D budget, it's not there. If you
> > look at deployed and planned deployed capacity, it's
> > not there.
> 
> So it's 31-Dec-2019 ..; the clock ticks over ... what happens?

I don't know what happens on that date, but in general this
is what happens:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8625

http://energyskeptic.com/2013/net-energy-cliff-collapse-by-2030/

This is why EROEI is a bad metric, just as mpg is
versus l/100 km or gpm. People's intutions work in a linear
way.

We've wasted the last 40 years. Now we will have to
pay the price. We can still negotiate that the worst
outcome will be prevented. 

But that would require 

a) widespread realization that there is a problem

b) global, large scale activity to navigate a regression to
maximum resilience regime.

So far, we're failing at a) already.


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