[FoRK] Your prediction, please

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Sun Jun 23 14:18:04 PDT 2013


On 6/23/13 1:15 PM, Russell Turpin wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 23, 2013 at 3:06 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> Sold where? Operating in public roads, fully insured?
> Yes.
>
>> In any case several decades.
> Why so long?

Depends on corporate and government decisions.
We're going to have farm and military autonomous vehicles very shortly, but that doesn't cover this.

For vehicles operating on public roads, I'd say the first are likely to be some type of emergency vehicles.  I could also see 
that long-haul shipping might be worth the investment into safety and security measures, offset by the extra danger however.

I think that some type of autonomous vehicle will be on the road in 10 years tops, perhaps 5-7.

sdw



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